The world has made too much sugar, and buyers are the winners. The global market has swung into a structural surplus for the 2025/26 season, its first significant glut after a multi-million-tonne deficit the previous cycle, pushing spot and forward prices to near five-year lows in what analysts describe as a buyer's market, according to a global sugar market review. Raw sugar slid to about 14 US cents a pound in early July 2026 as softer oil prices reduced the incentive to divert cane to ethanol, according to Trading Economics.
Who Grew All the Sugar
The surplus has been driven by strong output in India, Thailand, Pakistan and Brazil, according to reporting on International Sugar Organization estimates by Barchart. The US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service put 2026/27 global production at about 184.9 million tonnes, with higher Indian output partly offsetting declines elsewhere, according to its sugar circular.
A Catch for Importers
The relief is not guaranteed to last or to reach every shelf. India, a swing supplier, extended a sugar export ban to the end of September, and weather risks still hang over the next harvests, according to Trading Economics, which can tighten prompt supply even in a surplus year. Delivered prices in importing regions also depend on freight, insurance and port costs, not just the headline futures number.
Nigeria refines large volumes of imported raw sugar, so a softer world price eases the cost of a key industrial input. FoodPrices Nigeria tracks verified prices across Lagos markets, where cheaper global sugar could filter through to sweetened staples over time.