The cost of the fertiliser farmers depend on to grow food is climbing fast, and the World Bank has warned that the squeeze will land hardest on Africa. Urea prices are projected to rise by nearly 60 percent in 2026 before easing in 2027, the World Bank said, with the fertiliser price index having already reached its highest level since October 2022, according to the bank's Commodity Markets Outlook summary.
Why the Squeeze Is On
The surge has been driven by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries nearly a quarter of global urea exports, alongside production halts in the Middle East and tighter export policy from China, the World Bank noted. Nitrogen prices climbed above $850 per tonne in April, up 80 percent since February, and the bank cautioned that Sub-Saharan Africa faces the greatest risk from sustained high costs given its low fertiliser use and constrained government budgets.
What It Means for Nigeria
For Nigeria, where urea is a very common nitrogen fertiliser, the development signals growing risks for food security and farm profitability in import-dependent economies, as Nairametrics reported, noting prices could exceed $700 per tonne under adverse conditions. There is a domestic cushion, since Nigeria's own urea output, bolstered by capacity at the Dangote fertiliser plant, has kept regional supply relatively strong, though naira depreciation still pushes up the cost of imported inputs, according to industry analysis by IMARC Group.
Fertiliser is the quiet input behind the price of almost everything on a food stall, since dearer nutrients today mean thinner harvests tomorrow. FoodPrices Nigeria tracks verified retail prices across Lagos markets, where the cost of this season's fertiliser eventually reaches the plate.