Somewhere in a government warehouse in India, rice is stacking up to record levels. In Argentina, wheat harvests have exceeded expectations. Brazil's maize crop is strong. And across the world, the cost of feeding people is quietly falling.
The FAO Food Price Index averaged 123.9 points in January 2026 — its fifth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since August 2024. The index now sits 22.7 per cent below the peak it hit in March 2022 when Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent commodity markets into panic (FAO, February 6, 2026; Agenparl, February 6, 2026).
But it's the supply numbers underneath the headline that should interest Nigerians most. Global cereal production in 2025 is now projected at a record 3.023 billion metric tonnes, with record harvests for wheat, coarse grains, and rice. Global cereal stocks are predicted to expand by 7.8 per cent, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio to 31.8 per cent — the highest level since 2001 (FAO, February 6, 2026; The Pig Site, February 6, 2026).
In plain language: the world has more grain sitting in storage relative to what it consumes than at any point in a quarter century.
What moved — and what didn't
The January decline was driven by dairy prices, which fell 5 per cent on the back of seasonally higher cream availability in Europe and accumulated inventories; meat prices, which eased 0.4 per cent; and sugar, down 1 per cent as India's production rebound and favourable Thai and Brazilian harvests boosted supply expectations (FAO, February 6, 2026; The Pig Site, February 6, 2026).
Cereals edged up marginally — by 0.2 per cent — as wheat and maize prices dipped slightly but rice prices rose 1.8 per cent, supported by firmer demand for fragrant varieties. Vegetable oils climbed 2.1 per cent, with higher palm, soy, and sunflower oil prices outweighing lower rapeseed oil quotations (FAO, February 6, 2026; The Pig Site, February 6, 2026).
The Nigerian calculation
For Nigeria — a country that spent ₦5.27 trillion on food imports in the first nine months of 2025 — the global surplus is both an opportunity and a warning.
The opportunity is clear: cheaper global grain means the zero-duty import regime on commodities like rice and maize can bring lower-priced food into Nigerian markets, which is already contributing to the historic decline in food inflation. Global rice prices have fallen roughly 35 per cent since India lifted its export restrictions in late 2024, and Indian parboiled rice — Nigeria's dominant import variety — is now the cheapest option available to African buyers (Coface, accessed February 19, 2026).
The warning is equally clear: the same cheap imports that reduce consumer prices are compressing domestic farm-gate prices and undermining the viability of Nigerian farmers who invested at elevated input costs. The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has already sounded the alarm, calling for minimum guaranteed prices on strategic commodities to prevent import-induced crashes from destroying rural livelihoods.
The FAO's own caveat
Even the FAO cautioned against complacency. In its February report, the agency stressed that the current calm in international markets reflects a favourable confluence of ample harvests, well-functioning supply chains, and adequate fertiliser availability. It warned that it would be "misguided to infer that global food commodity markets are now structurally less vulnerable to shocks" (Agenparl, February 6, 2026).
Climate variability, geopolitical tensions, and policy shifts in major producing countries remain live risks. A single bad monsoon in South Asia, an escalation in Black Sea tensions, or a reversal of India's export liberalisation could tighten supply and push prices back up within months.
At FoodPrices Nigeria, the global picture confirms what our market agents have been reporting across Lagos: prices on imported items are falling, and the broader supply environment is the most favourable it has been in years. But we've learned — especially from 2022 and 2023 — that global abundance can vanish fast. The question for Nigeria isn't whether to enjoy the current relief. It's whether we're using this window to build the domestic production capacity, storage infrastructure, and supply-chain resilience that will protect us when the next shock inevitably arrives. Right now, the evidence suggests we're not.