The world is producing more tea than it can sell, and prices are sliding for a second year running. Global tea prices fell 8 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, driven by abundant supply mainly from India, according to the World Bank's Commodity Outlook as reported by Ecofin Agency.
Auctions Split
The pain has not been evenly spread. Prices at India's Kolkata auction fell about 22 per cent and Sri Lanka's Colombo auction slipped 5 per cent, while Kenya's Mombasa auction held up on demand for premium grades, the Ecofin report noted. That divergence reflects distinct supply conditions, with Indian output climbing even as Kenyan production fell nearly 10 per cent early in the year on erratic rainfall, according to market analysis published by Expana.
Conflict Cuts Demand
Geopolitics has made things worse. Conflict in the Middle East has stalled tea shipments to Gulf markets that buy between 20 and 25 per cent of Kenya's exports, with the East Africa Tea Trade Association putting cumulative losses at around $8 million a week since March, as African Sustainability Matters reported. Kenya alone accounts for nearly 80 per cent of Africa's tea exports, so a prolonged slump threatens the incomes of millions of smallholders across the continent.
Tea is a daily staple in Nigerian homes, from loose leaf to sachets, so global oversupply can ease costs even as conflict-driven volatility clouds the outlook. FoodPrices Nigeria tracks verified retail prices across Lagos markets, where the world's commodity gluts and shocks eventually show up.