The world is holding more rice than ever, and for import-dependent countries the timing could hardly be better. World milled rice inventories reached a record 196.2 million tonnes at the start of 2026 after a run of strong harvests led by top grower India, whose own stocks climbed to an all-time high of 68.4 million tonnes in June, according to Trading Economics.
Record Harvests, Softer Prices
The abundance is global. India is expected to export a record volume this year, while major importer Indonesia is holding record stockpiles and Thailand's inventories sit at their highest in a decade, Trading Economics reported. The Food and Agriculture Organisation's latest outlook points to broad-based increases in production, with world rice stocks forecast to rise to a new record high, keeping downward pressure on international prices, according to the FAO.
A Window That May Not Last
The relief comes with a warning. Analysts expect a strong El Niño to develop across key producing regions in Southeast Asia, with rice seen as among the most vulnerable crops, though heavy inventories are expected to cushion the impact for now, Trading Economics noted. Renewed tensions in the Middle East have also raised the risk of shipping disruptions that could lift freight costs on the way to import markets.
Cheaper global rice is welcome news for a country that still imports a large share of what it eats. FoodPrices Nigeria tracks verified rice prices across Lagos markets, where a well-supplied world market gives shoppers a little breathing room.