Nigeria's Central Bank is projecting a significant decline in headline inflation for 2026, with the rate expected to moderate to an average of 12.94 per cent — down sharply from an estimated 21.26 per cent recorded in 2025. If realised, this would represent the most meaningful inflation relief Nigerian households have experienced in years.
In its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, the CBN said the anticipated moderation would be driven primarily by declining food and Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices. According to Premium Times, the CBN stated that the Nigerian economy is expected to grow by 4.49 per cent in 2026, supported by "continued gains from broad-based structural reforms and a gradually easing monetary policy stance."
On the food side, Finance in Africa reported that the CBN cited increased food output following agriculture-focused reforms, better security conditions across major food-producing regions, and favourable weather conditions as key factors expected to support sustained moderation in food prices through 2026. The report noted that fuel prices are also expected to soften as competition intensifies within Nigeria's midstream oil segment.
Nigeria's food inflation has been one of the sharpest drivers of overall price increases in recent years. At its peak in mid-2024, food inflation hit a record 40.87 per cent according to NBS data cited by Vestance Analytics, pushing the cost of basic staples far beyond the reach of millions of households. The CBN's latest projection suggests the worst of this cycle may be over.
The fuel price component is also significant. Dangote Refinery recently reduced its gantry price of PMS by ₦25 per litre, lowering it from ₦799 to ₦774 per litre, according to Vanguard. The Guardian noted that this makes domestically refined fuel cheaper than imported PMS from Lomé, Togo, which lands at approximately ₦793 per litre. This competitive pricing from Africa's largest single-train refinery is expected to help moderate transportation and logistics costs — a key input in food prices across Nigeria, particularly for markets far from production zones.
Daily Post reported that the president of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Abubakar Maigandi, confirmed that at least 80 per cent of its members currently purchase Dangote Refinery petrol, and that with the right enabling environment, retail fuel prices may be slashed nationwide — a development that would further ease transportation costs for food distribution.
Premium Times also reported that Nigeria's headline inflation had already eased significantly, dropping for the eighth consecutive month to 14.45 per cent in November 2025, down from 16.05 per cent in October. This is the lowest annual inflation rate in recent years and reflects slowing food price growth.
However, the CBN was careful to flag risks. Finance in Africa reported that the apex bank warned of potential pressure from higher global commodity prices should geopolitical tensions persist, alongside rising protectionism that could raise trade costs and disrupt supply chains. Domestically, higher-than-expected pre-election spending, extra-budgetary outlays, renewed insecurity in food-producing regions, and adverse weather conditions could all undermine the projected disinflation path.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has also sounded a cautionary note. According to Nairametrics, the FAO warned that about 34.7 million Nigerians could face severe food insecurity during the next lean season — June to August 2026 — if timely and coordinated interventions are not implemented, based on the October 2025 Cadre Harmonisé analysis.
For those of us tracking food prices daily at FoodPrices, the CBN's outlook aligns with what we have been observing in market data: a gradual easing in prices of key staples like rice, beans, and garri through late 2025 and into early 2026. The question remains whether these gains will be sustained through the lean season months when prices historically climb. We will continue providing real-time data so consumers, businesses, and policymakers can make informed decisions as the year progresses.