The United States has trained its trade war on the world's largest coffee supplier, and the effects are rippling through a global market that was already tight. After Washington imposed a 50 per cent tariff on Brazilian imports, hundreds of exemptions announced later spared many farm goods, but coffee, beef, seafood, cocoa and sugar cane remained subject to the levy, according to farmdoc daily, which noted that coffee accounts for about 17 per cent of Brazil's export value to the US.
A Moving Target
The picture has shifted repeatedly. After the US Supreme Court limited one legal basis for the tariffs in early 2026, the administration applied a global 10 per cent duty and the US Trade Representative proposed a fresh 25 per cent tariff on various Brazilian goods under a separate investigation, according to the Atlantic Council, which reported that US imports from Brazil had fallen roughly 10 per cent by weight over the year. Instant coffee has been a particular flashpoint, with more than 90 per cent of Brazil's soluble coffee bound for the US and the country producing less than 6 per cent of its own, according to industry figures reported by Reuters.
Who Pays
Trade analysts are blunt about where the cost falls. Tariffs are paid by US importers and passed to consumers, and there are no suppliers able to replace Brazil's volumes at comparable prices, as NerdWallet reported from industry sources. A separate analysis found the tariffs would raise US food prices most on coffee, fish and alcohol, since such goods are hard to grow domestically, according to the Tax Foundation.
Brazil sets the benchmark for the coffee the world drinks, so policy shocks there feed volatility everywhere, including the instant coffee on Nigerian shelves. FoodPrices Nigeria tracks verified retail prices across Lagos markets, where global commodity swings eventually reach the checkout.