Staple food prices across Nigeria are recording sharp increases as the Ramadan fasting season enters its second week, with beans rising from ₦50,000 to ₦90,000 per bag in Abuja and select northern markets, according to reports from DailyTrust and Legit.ng. The National Orientation Agency has responded with an official warning against food hoarding and price gouging, calling the exploitation of a sacred period both economically harmful and morally indefensible. With Ramadan coinciding with a period of already-volatile seasonal pricing, Nigerian families are facing a compounding squeeze: the structural food inflation that dominated 2024 and 2025 may have eased on paper, but the market reality during peak demand windows tells a different story.
The price surge is most visible in grains, proteins, and fresh produce — the very categories that dominate suhoor and iftar meal preparation. In Abuja, traders surveyed by DailyTrust report beans jumping 80% from ₦50,000 to ₦90,000 per bag, while maize has risen from ₦25,000 to ₦27,000 per bag — a more modest 8% increase but significant given its role as a base ingredient in pap, tuwo, and animal feed. In Kaduna and Taraba States, grain merchants are reporting reduced bulk purchases from poultry feed companies and rice millers, yet retail prices continue climbing as end-consumer demand surges for Ramadan essentials. The disconnect between wholesale market slowdowns and retail price increases points to middleman arbitrage and deliberate stock-holding at the distribution layer rather than genuine supply shortages.
Northern markets, traditionally the bellwether for grain pricing during Ramadan, are showing uneven patterns that complicate any simple narrative. In Kano, markets have largely resisted the typical seasonal surge: Gerewa rice (50kg) holds at ₦52,000, BUA rice at ₦52,500, and AA Rano rice at ₦51,500, with the 25kg pack at ₦27,000. Sugar stands at ₦70,000 per bag. Fresh produce in Kano saw only minor changes — tomatoes at ₦800 per bowl, tatashe at ₦1,500, onions at ₦2,000, Irish potatoes at ₦7,500 per basket, and medium yams at ₦5,000 per tuber. The relative stability in Kano suggests that where supply chains remain robust and competition among traders is strong, the Ramadan premium can be contained. The contrast with Abuja's 80% beans spike reveals how much pricing power shifts to traders in markets with weaker competitive dynamics.
The National Orientation Agency's intervention, announced on February 20 by Director-General Lanre Issa-Onilu, represents a rare government acknowledgement that Ramadan pricing manipulation is a systemic market failure rather than isolated trader behaviour. Issa-Onilu stated that the agency had received reports of traders deliberately holding back essential food items commonly consumed during fasting, creating artificial scarcity and inflating prices across markets. The NOA called on trade associations, market unions, and commodity groups to enforce ethical standards and prevent exploitation, framing responsible pricing as both a patriotic duty and a moral obligation aligned with the religious principles of Ramadan and Lent. While such warnings carry no enforcement teeth, they signal growing political awareness that food price manipulation during religious observances is a governance issue, not merely a market one.
The mathematics of Ramadan feeding reveal why price spikes in key staples cause disproportionate pain for Nigerian households. A typical family of four preparing suhoor and iftar daily requires approximately 2kg of rice or grain, 0.5kg of beans or protein, cooking oil, and fresh vegetables — translating to roughly ₦3,000-₦5,000 daily at pre-Ramadan prices, according to FoodPrices NG ingredient tracking across Lagos markets. A 20-30% Ramadan premium pushes this to ₦3,600-₦6,500 daily, adding ₦18,000-₦45,000 in additional food costs over the 30-day fasting period. For a family earning the ₦70,000 minimum wage, this Ramadan premium alone could consume 25-64% of a month's income — on top of the baseline food expenditure that already exceeds what most households can afford.
The current Ramadan price surge sits against a backdrop of seemingly positive inflation data that masks the lived experience of Nigerian consumers. The National Bureau of Statistics reported food inflation at 8.89% in January 2026 — the lowest reading in a decade and a sharp reversal from the 29.63% recorded in January 2025. Yet as analysts consistently note, inflation measures the rate of price change, not absolute price levels. A bag of beans that cost ₦25,000 in 2022 and peaked at ₦160,000 in late 2025 now sits at ₦110,000 in Lagos markets. The 31% decline from the peak looks impressive in inflation statistics, but the price remains 340% above 2022 levels. When Ramadan demand pushes that same bag back to ₦150,000-₦190,000 in northern markets, families experience it as a fresh crisis regardless of what year-on-year inflation percentages suggest.
The federal government's recent import duty waivers on selected grains — including rice and maize — have contributed to wholesale price moderation in producing states but have not fully transmitted to retail markets during Ramadan. Flour, which benefits directly from the import window, has dropped from ₦80,000 to ₦61,000-₦63,000 per 50kg bag in several markets. However, locally produced staples like beans, yam, and fresh vegetables remain insulated from import competition, leaving them vulnerable to the full force of seasonal demand spikes. The All Farmers Association of Nigeria has already voiced concern that indiscriminate food imports are suppressing farm-gate prices and discouraging local production — a structural risk that could amplify future supply shortages even as it provides temporary consumer relief.
For Nigerian families navigating the remainder of Ramadan 2026, strategic purchasing offers the most immediate defence against price gouging. FoodPrices NG data consistently shows 30-60% price variation across Lagos markets for identical products on the same day, meaning families who compare prices across two or three markets before bulk purchasing can offset much of the Ramadan premium. Substitution also matters: replacing premium rice varieties with locally milled alternatives saves ₦10,000-₦15,000 per 50kg bag, while shifting from expensive fresh tomatoes to preserved tomato paste during peak-price windows can halve sauce preparation costs. Markets closer to agricultural supply routes — Epe, Mile 12, and wholesale hubs in producing states — typically offer 15-25% lower pricing than central urban markets. The most effective strategy combines early-week shopping (before weekend demand peaks), bulk purchasing of non-perishables at wholesale prices, and flexible meal planning that prioritises whichever staples are cheapest on any given market day rather than following a fixed Ramadan menu.
Sources: Legit.ng market survey (February 2026), DailyTrust trader interviews, Daily Post Nigeria NOA statement, FoodPrices NG verified market agent reports across Lagos State, National Bureau of Statistics January 2026 CPI data.