Orange juice has become a study in how a crashing market can still leave shoppers paying more. Global orange juice production is expected to fall by around 13 per cent in the 2026/27 season to roughly 1.16 million tonnes, driven mainly by a smaller Brazilian crop, the world's largest, according to a RaboResearch report cited by Fruitnet.
A Disease That Won't Let Go
Brazil's citrus belt around São Paulo and western Minas Gerais is forecast to produce 255.2 million boxes of oranges, down 12.9 per cent on the previous season, with adverse weather and the continued spread of citrus greening disease driving the decline, as FreshFruitPortal reported. Greening alone is expected to cause nearly 50 million boxes of fruit to be lost, representing about $300 million in losses for growers, according to the Citrus Industry analysis of the same forecast.
The Gap Between Wholesale and Shelf
Frozen concentrated orange juice prices have fallen sharply, from around $7,000 per tonne in late 2024 to about $2,850 per tonne by May 2026, Fruitnet reported, yet retail prices in major markets remain near record highs, with average United States prices climbing to roughly $3.10 per litre. Rabobank said retailers and bottlers appear to be prioritising margins over volume, while stocks are set to reach a seven-year high that will likely cap any price recovery. Even so, futures can turn quickly, and prices jumped by the exchange maximum in New York on one May session as traders reacted to the weaker Brazil outlook, according to Bloomberg.
For an import-reliant market like Nigeria, global juice and concentrate costs eventually reach the checkout through packaged drinks and retail brands. FoodPrices Nigeria tracks verified retail prices across Lagos markets, where swings in world commodity markets show up in what households pay.
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