After a brutal run of record highs, olive oil has finally cooled, but the relief may be temporary. Global extra virgin olive oil prices have fallen about 32 per cent from their 2024 peak, with Spain's export price easing to around $7.66 per kilogram from a high of $11.19 per kilogram in 2024, according to trade analysis by Tridge.
How Prices Got So High
The 2023 and 2024 surge was driven by a severe multi-year drought across the Mediterranean, especially in Spain, which accounts for roughly 40 per cent of global production, and Spain's export price had climbed from $3.57 per kilogram in 2021, a rise of about 148 per cent driven almost entirely by shrinking supply, Tridge reported. Global production for the 2025/26 crop year recovered to about 3.44 million tonnes, a 4 per cent decline that still left output at historically high levels, according to the International Olive Council.
Why the Next Shock May Be Near
Spain's olive production association issued a warning in May 2026 that nearly 70 per cent of the 2025/26 season's oil had already been sold within seven months, leaving stocks at campaign lows, while preliminary field data pointed to a 37 per cent decline in flowering fertility for the 2026/27 crop, Tridge reported. Prices at origin have fallen so far that they now sit near or below the production costs of many Spanish growers, whose costs in traditional groves exceed five euros per kilogram, according to the June market assessment by Certified Origins, even as early rainfall lifts hopes for a larger harvest ahead.
Olive oil is a premium import on Nigerian shelves, and its world price sets the floor for what local retailers charge. FoodPrices Nigeria tracks verified retail prices across Lagos markets, where global oil markets ripple into household budgets.
#OliveOil #Spain #Mediterranean #CommodityPrices #GlobalFood #FoodPrices #Nigeria #Agriculture #Drought