The Nigerian Meteorological Agency has unveiled its 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction, warning of variable rainfall patterns, prolonged dry spells, a severe August Break in parts of the country, and generally warmer temperatures across Nigeria. The forecast was presented at the NAF Conference Centre in Abuja to an audience of policymakers, farmers, disaster managers, and development partners, and it sets the weather backdrop for a farming season that is now under way.
A Season That Breaks From Familiar Patterns
The 2026 outlook is built on a projected weak La Niña and a neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and it forecasts an early to normal onset of the rains across most regions. The agency cautioned that rainfall will be inconsistent in both timing and distribution, with some regions seeing early onset and others delayed rains, combined with prolonged dry-season spells lasting up to 21 days and temperatures expected to stay above familiar averages across much of the country. For farmers, the agency flagged the risk of a false onset, where early rains tempt planting before the season has truly settled.
Why Lagos Faces Particular Exposure
Urban centres around Lagos sit at the sharp end of this outlook. NiMet has warned that the August Break is likely to begin in late July and could be both severe and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, and Ekiti. At the same time, a longer-than-normal rainy season is predicted for Lagos, alongside Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, and several other states, with a delayed end of season projected for the Lagos axis. The combination of heavy rain, mid-season dry breaks, and a later cessation complicates planting calendars for the produce that feeds the city.
The Link to What Households Pay
Weather variability translates into supply, and supply translates into price. Agricultural advisories drawn from the forecast have urged farmers to prioritise good drainage, since heavy rains may follow dry spells and cause flooding, and to step up pest monitoring rather than rely on chemical control alone, because warmer and more humid conditions favour pest spread. Higher temperatures also raise evapotranspiration, meaning crops lose water faster and need more moisture to maintain growth.
States have begun translating the national forecast into local planning. In early June, the Ekiti State Government partnered with NiMet to downscale the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction and Annual Flood Outlook for use across agriculture, health, and rural development. Earlier, farmers in Anambra were advised at a NiMet and NIHSA seminar that the state's rainy season would begin around March 23 and end between November 27 and December 4, with several local government areas placed on flood watch.
FoodPrices Nigeria tracks retail food prices across Lagos markets, and a season shaped by erratic rainfall and a severe August Break is the kind of supply-side event that shows up in market prices weeks later.