Nigeria's food inflation rate has fallen to 8.89 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, marking the first time the figure has dipped below 10 per cent in 128 consecutive months and the lowest level recorded in 174 months — over 14 years. For millions of Nigerian households that have endured years of relentless food price increases, this is the most significant statistical relief in over a decade.
The data was released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics in its latest Consumer Price Index report. According to Nairametrics, the January 2026 CPI report showed food inflation declined from 29.63 per cent recorded in January 2025 to 8.89 per cent in January 2026 — a sharp 20.73 percentage point year-on-year drop. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation contracted by 6.02 per cent in January, compared with a 0.36 per cent decline in December 2025, indicating that average food prices actually fell during the month.
The last time Nigeria recorded single-digit food inflation was in May 2015, when the rate stood at 9.78 per cent. From June 2015, when the rate rose to 10.04 per cent, food inflation remained stubbornly in double digits for 128 consecutive months — spanning over a decade of unbroken price increases that eroded the purchasing power of ordinary Nigerians and pushed millions into food insecurity.
The NBS attributed the January decline to falling average prices of several staple items. According to Punch, the items driving the decline included water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon (egusi), cassava tuber, and cowpeas. These are items that form the backbone of daily meals for the vast majority of Nigerian households, meaning the relief — while statistical — is being felt at kitchen tables across the country.
Leadership noted that this single-digit reading was driven by a combination of factors, including the Federal Government's import waiver policy on select food staples, which eased logistics bottlenecks, a steadier naira after years of sharp depreciation, and improved domestic harvests in 2025. The report placed Nigeria's food inflation in context with regional peers, noting that Kenya and Ghana recorded 7.8 per cent and 3.9 per cent food inflation respectively in January 2026.
On the broader inflation picture, headline inflation also eased marginally to 15.10 per cent in January 2026 from 15.15 per cent in December 2025. Business Post reported that food remains the largest contributor to headline inflation, accounting for 6.04 percentage points of the 15.10 per cent rate, meaning the sharp deceleration in food prices has been central to the broader easing trend.
However, state-level data reveals a much more uneven picture. According to Nairametrics, on a year-on-year basis in January 2026, Kogi recorded the highest food inflation at 19.84 per cent, followed by Benue at 18.38 per cent and Adamawa at 17.29 per cent. At the other end, Ebonyi recorded the slowest rise at 1.69 per cent, while Abia and Imo posted 3.23 per cent and 3.74 per cent respectively. Month-on-month, several states recorded particularly sharp price declines, including Yobe at -11.88 per cent, Nasarawa at -9.06 per cent, and Sokoto at -8.31 per cent.
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) reacted to the data on Monday. According to Daily Post, CPPE Chief Executive Officer Dr Muda Yusuf described the shift as "real disinflation" rather than temporary price volatility, pointing to broad-based easing across both food and core inflation components. He noted that the moderation carried substantial welfare benefits because food accounts for the largest share of household expenditure in Nigeria, improving real purchasing power particularly for low-income households.
But Dr Yusuf also sounded a warning that should concern everyone tracking Nigeria's food system. While declining food prices benefit consumers, they pose serious risks for farm incomes and rural economic stability. He called for a clear, rules-based, and market-friendly farm price stabilisation and farmer income protection framework to prevent what he described as an import-induced price crash that could devastate domestic producers.
This tension between consumer relief and farmer viability is perhaps the most important dimension of this story. The Guardian reported that NBS data showed Nigeria spent ₦5.27 trillion on food and beverage imports in the first nine months of 2025, flooding the market with cheaper alternatives that have undercut local producers. The result is a paradox: food prices have become cheaper, but agrochemicals and other farming inputs remain alarmingly high, eroding farmers' income.
The President of the Nigeria Agribusiness Group, Kabir Ibrahim, warned through The Guardian that the pervading insecurity and high input prices facing smallholder farmers call for decisive action to avoid imminent severe stresses in the food system in 2026 and beyond. Fast-dropping food prices are bad news for farmers who are struggling to cut their losses following the recent sharp decline.
This concern is echoed in the latest reporting from BusinessDay, which reported that farmers are now scaling back food production as losses pile up. The report described how producers — battered by what it called the "Great Loss of 2025" — are downing tools and shrinking their fields to survive. The shift is most visible in the current dry-season cycle, where once-bustling fields are being traded for low-maintenance crops or left fallow as farmers pivot to new industries entirely. With input costs skyrocketing and confidence at an all-time low, the move signals a looming supply crunch that could send food prices into a fresh tailspin.
The historical context makes this data point even more striking. Food inflation had reached an all-time peak of 40.87 per cent in June 2024, according to Nairametrics. Through 2025, the rate gradually eased — falling to 25.22 per cent in March, 24.55 per cent in May, 20.16 per cent in September, 16.30 per cent in October, 14.21 per cent in November, and 10.84 per cent in December before entering single digits in January 2026. The trajectory is unmistakably positive, but the speed of the decline itself raises questions about sustainability.
Voice of Nigeria reported that among the newly introduced sub-indices in the rebased CPI, imported food prices declined by 6.81 per cent month-on-month, while farm produce fell by 5.10 per cent. This suggests that both domestic harvest improvements and the import waiver policy are contributing to the overall decline — but the heavy reliance on imports to suppress prices carries its own long-term risks, as multiple stakeholders have warned.
At FoodPrices, this NBS release validates what our market data has been showing for months: prices of key staples are coming down meaningfully across Lagos markets and beyond. But the data also confirms the tension we have been reporting on — between the consumer relief these price drops bring and the financial pressure they place on the farmers who produce the nation's food. A food system where consumers celebrate lower prices while producers threaten to abandon their farms is not a system in equilibrium. We will continue tracking both sides of this equation in real time, because the decisions made in the next few months — on import policy, input subsidies, and farmer support — will determine whether this historic disinflation becomes a foundation for stability or a prelude to the next supply crisis.