Nigeria's farm export engine lost power in the second quarter of 2026. Agricultural export earnings fell by 36.09 per cent year-on-year to ₦802.99 billion, down from ₦1.26 trillion in the same quarter of 2025, according to the latest National Bureau of Statistics data reported by Vanguard. The slide was not only annual, as the figure also represented a 31.51 per cent drop from the ₦1.17 trillion recorded in the first quarter of the year.
What Led, What Lagged
The composition of the trade still leaned on a familiar handful of commodities. Nigeria's top 10 agricultural export categories brought in ₦747.54 billion in the quarter, with cashew nuts in shell recording the highest value at ₦268.62 billion, according to PM News. Standard-quality cocoa beans followed at ₦154.31 billion and sesame seeds at ₦96.03 billion, while soya beans excluding seeds generated ₦50.22 billion and soya bean flours and meals added ₦36.41 billion, as MSME Africa reported. The sharpest reversal came from natural cocoa butter, which fell to ₦27.60 billion from ₦105.07 billion in the same quarter of 2025, according to PM News, a collapse that pulled heavily on the headline number. The combined value of the top 10 exports was 34.8 per cent lower than the ₦1.15 trillion recorded in the first quarter and 39 per cent below the ₦1.23 trillion of a year earlier.
A Wider Trade Picture
The farm slump sat inside a broader trade story dominated by oil. Nigeria posted a merchandise trade surplus of ₦12.60 trillion in the second quarter, more than double the figure a year earlier, as strong petroleum exports offset sharp declines in agricultural and manufactured exports, according to Leadership. Even as farm exports fell, agricultural imports rose to ₦1.20 trillion in the quarter, a 1.63 per cent increase year-on-year and a 45.4 per cent jump from the first quarter, the same report noted, leaving the sector importing more while selling less abroad.
Clouds Ahead
The pressure may intensify. Analysts have warned that Nigeria risks losing more than $1 billion, about ₦1.4 trillion, in annual agro-export earnings once the European Union Deforestation Regulation takes effect for large and medium operators on December 30, 2026, since the rules demand farm-level traceability for cocoa, palm oil, soybeans and other commodities, according to Vanguard. With cocoa among the country's most valuable non-oil exports and mostly grown by smallholders, compliance costs could squeeze earnings further just as prices soften.
Export earnings are the mirror image of what stays home to be eaten, and a weaker export quarter reshapes incomes across the value chain. FoodPrices Nigeria tracks verified retail prices across Lagos markets and follows the trade shifts that ripple back into what farmers earn and households pay.