The latest Selected Food Prices Watch report from the National Bureau of Statistics confirms a welcome trend for Nigerian consumers: prices of major food items are declining meaningfully for the first time in years.
According to Punch, the NBS November 2025 data showed that the average price of 1kg of local rice fell by 5.00 per cent year-on-year to ₦1,861.95. On a month-on-month basis, the price also decreased by 2.71 per cent from ₦1,913.78 recorded in October 2025.
The most dramatic decline was in beans. Punch reported that the average price of 1kg of brown beans dropped by 43.14 per cent year-on-year to ₦1,547.03. On a month-on-month basis, beans fell 12.13 per cent from ₦1,760.53 in October 2025. This sharp correction likely reflects improved harvest yields and the impact of government interventions aimed at increasing domestic production of key staple crops.
White garri, a staple consumed daily by millions of Nigerian households, also saw a substantial decline — falling 32 per cent year-on-year to ₦819.70 per kilogramme, according to the same NBS report. Tomatoes and onions also recorded slight declines.
These drops reflect several converging factors. Punch noted that President Bola Tinubu ordered measures to reduce food prices nationwide in September 2025, prompting a range of policy actions. Improved harvest yields in 2025 also contributed to greater supply. Independent Newspaper reported that 2025 saw increased yields in key staple crops including yam, maize, rice, and cassava, driven by improved farming practices, favourable rainfall, expanding technology adoption, and government-led interventions such as dry-season farming.
However, these gains came with a paradox. Independent Newspaper also noted that 2025 emerged as a year of contradiction: greater food availability alongside heightened financial stress for producers, as rising production costs — including fertilisers, fuel, herbicides, and machinery — significantly squeezed farmers' margins even as consumer prices eased. This tension between affordability for consumers and viability for farmers is one of the central challenges Nigeria's food system faces heading into 2026.
It is also worth noting that even at these lower levels, food prices remain significantly higher than they were two to three years ago. In mid-2024, food inflation had hit a record 40.87 per cent according to NBS data cited by Vestance Analytics. The current declines represent relief from recent peaks rather than a return to pre-inflation price levels. A kilogramme of local rice at ₦1,862 is still far above the ₦500–₦700 range that prevailed before the current inflationary cycle began.
Looking ahead, the key concern is whether these gains hold through the lean season. Vestance Analytics' research on food price seasonality found that the periods of January and February are typically characterised by relatively modest increases in food prices (around 0.9%), while the sharpest spikes tend to occur between March and September, driven by agricultural production cycles, planting periods, and climate conditions. October and November present another opportunity for advantageous buying and storing before the December price spike.
Independent Newspaper reported that Sani Danladi, National Secretary of the National Tomato Growers, Processors and Marketers Association of Nigeria (NATPAN), described expectations for 2026 as tied to how effectively the government manages its budget process. He flagged the overlapping implementation of multiple budgets — spanning 2024, 2025 and now 2026 — as unhealthy for planning in the agricultural sector.
At FoodPrices, we are tracking these trends in real time across markets in Lagos and beyond. Our data allows consumers to compare prices across markets and make informed purchasing decisions — exactly the kind of intelligence that becomes most valuable as we approach the months when prices historically begin to climb. If you can afford to stock up on beans and garri now, the seasonal data suggests it is a smart move.