The world is on track to grow considerably more food over the next ten years, but a new global outlook warns that the gains will be uneven and easily knocked off course. Global agricultural and fisheries production is projected to expand by 13 percent over the next decade, driven mainly by productivity gains, with growth concentrated in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035.
Growth With a Warning Label
Middle-income countries alongside Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America are expected to account for more than 80 percent of the increase in global output, the OECD reported. But the report cautions that agricultural workers in low-income parts of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia earn only about $930 a year on average, a figure projected to rise modestly to around $1,100 by 2035, leaving rural households with little cushion against shocks.
The Fertiliser Shadow
The near-term risk is already visible. The report found that if the 33 percent surge in energy prices seen in the first half of 2026 were to persist, global grain production would fall by 0.9 percent in 2027, and more sharply by 1.7 percent in low-income countries, as higher energy costs constrain fertiliser use, according to the FAO. It warned that associated income losses and higher food prices would force households in lower-income countries to eat less and shift toward cheaper foods, while wealthier countries largely hold their diets steady.
For Nigeria, the outlook is a reminder that global forces and local harvests together decide what a family can afford to eat. FoodPrices Nigeria tracks verified retail prices across Lagos markets, turning these broad projections into the concrete numbers shoppers face each week.