The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Systems' weekly market survey for Lagos, covering the week of 24 July 2026 and compared with 17 July 2026, shows a food basket moving in two directions at once. Every format of imported rice fell. Every variety of garri rose. That split is not random, and the macro-economic events of the same seven days explain most of it.
What Lagos Pays Now
Rice remains the largest single category tracked, and it leaned lower across almost every format this week. A derica of Imported Rice (Long Grain) had a mean price of ₦1,025 across eight markets, cheapest at ₦900 in Mushin Market and priciest at ₦1,300 in Ajah Market. The paint size of the same rice averaged ₦5,081, the 25kg bag averaged ₦28,562, and the 50kg bag averaged ₦56,938, all lower than the previous week. Imported Rice (Short Grain) also eased, with a derica averaging ₦950, a paint averaging ₦4,700, a 25kg bag averaging ₦26,722, and a 50kg bag averaging ₦53,000. Nigerian Manufactured Rice held broadly flat by comparison, with the derica and paint sizes unchanged at ₦964 and ₦4,843, the 25kg bag up marginally to ₦26,812, and the 50kg bag up slightly to ₦53,312.
Beans showed a split. A derica of Beans (Drum) rose to a mean of ₦989 across nine markets, cheapest at ₦800 in Agege Market and priciest at ₦1,200 in Ile-Epo Market, while a derica of Beans (Oloyin) fell to ₦1,056, cheapest at ₦900 in Ile-Epo Market and priciest at ₦1,300 in Ajah Market. The paint sizes of both varieties eased slightly, with Beans (Drum) averaging ₦4,256 and Beans (Oloyin) averaging ₦4,780.
Garri moved higher across all three varieties tracked. A paint of Garri (White) averaged ₦1,320 across ten markets, cheapest at ₦1,000 in Oyingbo Market and priciest at ₦2,000 in Ajah Market. Garri (Ijebu) averaged ₦1,275 across four markets, and Garri (Yellow) averaged ₦1,511 across nine markets.
Medium Sized Eggs averaged ₦5,560 per crate across ten markets, cheapest at ₦4,000 in Ile-Epo Market and priciest at ₦6,500 in Agbalata Market. Medium Sized Yam recorded the week's most dramatic move, with a mean of ₦3,055 per tuber across ten markets, cheapest at ₦2,150 in Ile-Epo Market and priciest at ₦3,500 in Mile 12 Market.
The Week's Biggest Increases
Garri (White) posted the largest mean increase of the week, rising 4.2% from ₦1,267 to ₦1,320 across ten markets. Beans (Drum) in the derica size followed with a 2.3% rise from ₦967 to ₦989 across nine markets. Garri (Ijebu) rounded out the list of moves of 1% or more, up 1.2% from ₦1,260 to ₦1,275 across four markets.
The Week's Biggest Decreases
Medium Sized Yam led all declines by a wide margin, falling 9.6% from ₦3,380 to ₦3,055 across ten markets. Imported Rice (Long Grain) recorded declines across every format tracked, down 3.8% in the 25kg bag from ₦29,688 to ₦28,562, down 3.5% in the derica from ₦1,062 to ₦1,025, and down 3.2% in the 50kg bag from ₦58,812 to ₦56,938. Medium Sized Eggs fell 3.1% from ₦5,740 to ₦5,560. Imported Rice (Short Grain) in the derica size dropped 2.8% from ₦978 to ₦950, and Beans (Oloyin) in the derica size fell 2.1% from ₦1,078 to ₦1,056. Smaller declines of 1% or more were recorded in Beans (Drum) paint, down 1.5% to ₦4,256, Imported Rice (Long Grain) paint, down 1.5% to ₦5,081, and Imported Rice (Short Grain) paint, down 1.1% to ₦4,700.
The Macro Picture: Why Imported and Local Staples Moved Apart
Two forces acted on the Lagos basket during the survey window, and they worked against each other.
The first favoured anything arriving by ship. The naira was steady through July, trading at roughly ₦1,380 to the dollar in the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market at the start of the month according to Channels Television, and around ₦1,382 by 13 July according to Vanguard. Currency data covering the survey week itself shows the naira firming slightly, from about ₦1,381 on 20 July to about ₦1,369 by 24 July. On top of that stability, Nigeria cut its import duty on bulk rice above 5kg from 70% to 47.5%, and on broken rice from 70% to 30%, with effect from 1 July 2026, a change Milling Middle East and Africa reported in April and May 2026 from fiscal policy documents seen by Platts. A stable currency and a lower tariff both reduce the landed cost of imported rice, and imported rice is exactly where the declines clustered.
The second force pushed the other way, and it hit domestically produced and road-freighted food. Dangote Refinery suspended naira-denominated petrol sales in mid-July and switched to dollar pricing, prompting depot owners in Lagos, Warri and Port Harcourt to raise loading prices within days. The refinery returned to naira sales on 22 July at a gantry price of ₦1,215 per litre, up ₦140 or 13.02% from ₦1,075, as Punch and Vanguard both reported. Retail followed. Legit.ng's survey found NNPC outlets in Lagos selling at ₦1,300 per litre on 21 July, up from ₦1,118, and Vanguard reported average Lagos pump prices reaching about ₦1,350 from ₦1,260. Transport operators passed it on. Legit.ng and Daily Trust reported commuter fares rising by between 20% and 40% on many routes. Garri, beans and yam reach Lagos by road from producing regions, so a freight cost shock reaches them first and reaches imported rice barely at all.
The Central Bank described this same divergence when it met mid-window. At its 306th Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 20 and 21 July 2026, the CBN held the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5% for the second consecutive time. Governor Olayemi Cardoso noted that core inflation had moderated to 15.92% in June largely because of exchange rate stability, while food inflation had risen to 17.52% on supply constraints, and cited renewed hostilities in the Middle East as a heightened global risk. That is the split this survey records at market level: currency stability holding down the imported half of the basket while supply and freight costs lift the domestic half.
One caveat on timing. The sharpest fuel increases took effect on 21 and 22 July, only two or three days before the close of this survey window. Pass-through to retail food prices is rarely that fast, so what appears in the garri and beans figures this week is likely to be the leading edge rather than the full effect. Next week's survey is the one to watch.
Where The Frame Does Not Fit
Two items refuse this explanation, and it is worth saying so plainly.
Yam fell 9.6% in a week when freight costs rose. That is the opposite of what the fuel shock would predict, and it also runs against months of reporting. Vanguard reported in April 2026 that Lagos yam prices had climbed sharply year on year, quoting an Oyingbo Market trader who expected prices to rise further into August rather than ease. Premium Times reported in early July that yam prices in Enugu had risen steeply. The most plausible explanation is seasonal, since Nigeria's new yam harvest reaches markets from around August and early supply can move prices quickly, but nothing yet confirms early harvest volumes have arrived in Lagos.
Eggs fell 3.1% against a year of rising poultry input costs. Nairametrics and Leadership reported in March 2026 that farm gate prices had climbed to around ₦5,500 per crate from ₦5,000 in January on a shortage of day-old chicks, and The Guardian reported continued pressure in May. Poultry is also energy-intensive, so the fuel increase should have pushed eggs up rather than down. No driver for the decline has been identified.