Three weeks after the United States and Israel launched joint airstrikes on Iran, the evidence is no longer confined to crude oil futures in London. It is on the ground at Agege Market, where a big basket of tomatoes has jumped from ₦40,000 to ₦50,000 since the war began — a 25% increase in 25 days. At Ajah Market, a paint of Oloyin beans that sold for ₦4,500 on February 23 now costs ₦5,500. A derica has moved from ₦1,000 to ₦1,200. The war in the Persian Gulf is arriving in Nigerian kitchens, and the transmission chain is shorter than most policymakers are willing to admit.
The Energy Shock Is Historic in Scale
On February 28, US and Israeli forces struck Iran — and the global oil market hasn't recovered since. As Al Jazeera reported, the Strait of Hormuz — a 21-nautical-mile waterway through which one-fifth of global petroleum consumption passes every day — effectively closed within hours of the opening strikes. According to Rapidan Energy Group, the disruption has already exceeded the previous record set during the Suez Crisis of 1956–57, which cut off just under 10% of global supply. The Iran war has disrupted 20% — more than double — for over three consecutive weeks.
Crude oil, which traded near $70 a barrel before the strikes, spiked to nearly $120 within a week, as NPR reported. On Wednesday, following an Israeli strike on Iran's South Pars gasfield — the largest natural gas reserve in the world — Fortune reported that Brent crude surged a further 5% to $108.66 a barrel. Iran has since named specific targets for retaliation, including Saudi Aramco's Samref refinery and Qatar's LNG export facilities. Goldman Sachs Research estimates a full one-month Strait closure — with no offsets — could push oil prices $15 higher per barrel still. In a worst-case scenario, the World Economic Forum warns some analysts have pencilled in $150 or more.
The Lagos Price Data: Three Weeks of War
FoodPrices.ng agents captured prices across Agege, Ajah, Mushin, and Mile 12 this week. Compared against pre-war readings from February 23, the data shows a market already under pressure.
Tomatoes at Agege Market have risen from ₦40,000 to ₦50,000 for a big basket — ₦10,000 more in under a month. A small basket is now ₦22,000. At Ajah, a paint bucket of tomatoes is ₦6,000. Oloyin beans at Ajah have moved from ₦4,500 to ₦5,500 per paint — a 22% rise — with the derica, the unit most commonly bought by low-income households, up 20% from ₦1,000 to ₦1,200. At Mile 12, a 50kg bag of Oloyin currently quotes at ₦65,000. Pepper (Rodo) at Agege is ₦45,000 for a 50kg bag; Local Tatashe is ₦40,000 for the same weight. These are not projections. These are this week's prices from Lagos markets.
Why Nigeria Gets Hit Twice
Nigeria exports crude oil but imports refined fuel — a structural paradox that means every oil price spike delivers a revenue boost to the federation account while simultaneously raising costs for every Nigerian who buys food that arrived on a truck.
As Semafor reported, higher fuel prices push up the cost of refilling the generators that millions of Nigerians rely on daily and feed directly into food inflation. According to Al Jazeera's global price tracker, Nigeria has already recorded a 35% increase in petrol prices since February 28 — the third-highest rate in the world, behind Cambodia and Vietnam. Diesel moves every tomato, bag of rice, and paint of pepper from farm gate to market stall. When diesel gets more expensive, everything on that chain reprices — fast. Scholars writing in The Conversation note that Nigeria spent approximately $47.2 billion on imported goods in 2024, and any sustained increase in global inflation will push that import bill materially higher — likely exceeding any windfall gains from the oil price rise.
The Fertiliser Crisis Nobody Is Discussing
Oil is the headline. Fertiliser is the slow disaster — and its damage will arrive at planting season, not at the pump.
According to PBS NewsHour, up to 30% of the world's fertiliser exports — urea, ammonia, phosphates, sulfur — pass through the Strait of Hormuz. As Al Jazeera's food security desk reported, nearly half of the world's traded urea alone is exported through the same chokepoint that is now functionally impaired. Nigerian smallholder farmers heading into the April planting season face higher input costs or outright shortages. The harvest implications will not show up at Mushin Market in April. They will arrive in August and September — when the crop that was never adequately fertilised fails to yield. Economists cited by PBS warn the effects will be most devastating in low-income countries where agricultural productivity is already challenged. Nigeria qualifies on both counts.
What Comes Next
If the conflict ends within six weeks, Brent crude stabilises around $90–100 and Lagos market food prices record a further 8–15% increase on transport-sensitive commodities — tomatoes, pepper, fresh fish — before plateauing. Painful, but manageable.
If the conflict runs to three months or longer, Capital Economics — as cited by Al Jazeera — forecasts Brent could average $150 per barrel over the following six months. At that level, diesel costs in Nigeria approach doubling. The ₦50,000 basket of tomatoes at Agege today could look cheap by July. The NBS food inflation index, which had been on a tentative downward trend through early 2026, reverses course sharply and remains elevated through the planting season and beyond.
If Iran follows through on its threats to strike Gulf energy infrastructure, the oil and fertiliser supply chains collapse simultaneously. This is no longer a price shock. This is a multi-season agricultural crisis.
The Policy Response Is Too Slow
The Tinubu administration has ruled out price intervention. As Semafor reported, the finance minister has explicitly stated the government will rely on direct cash transfers to cushion the impact on the most vulnerable — without any form of fuel price control. The fiscal logic is defensible. The operational timeline is not. Abuja-based risk consultant Ebipere Clark put it plainly to Semafor: the deeper issue is stagnant incomes and weak social protection, not simply the level of the petrol price. Cash transfers do not move at the speed commodity markets do. By the time a payment reaches a household in Agege, the market will have repriced twice. The government needs to be moving now on diesel cost stabilisation for logistics operators, emergency fertiliser procurement ahead of planting season, and CBN import financing buffers for strategic food commodities.
The Bottom Line
The Strait of Hormuz is 5,000 kilometres from Agege Market. But the FoodPrices.ng price series captured this week shows tomatoes up 25% and beans up 20% in less than a month. The IMF's own modelling holds that every 10% rise in oil prices adds 0.4% to global inflation. Oil is up more than 50% since February 28. The arithmetic is not reassuring.
FoodPrices.ng will track prices weekly across our Lagos market network — Mushin, Mile 12, Agege, Ajah, Oyingbo, Ile-Epo, and beyond — through this crisis. The data will tell you what the politicians won't.