The conflict involving Iran is feeding through to Nigeria's fuel, fertiliser and food prices, according to a policy note from the International Food Policy Research Institute reported on the IFPRI website. The analysis traces how a shock far from Nigeria reaches the country's farms and markets through global energy and input channels.
Urea Spikes
About 40 per cent of global urea exports originate in the Persian Gulf region, so prices reacted fast, with urea jumping from an average of $490 to $780 per metric tonne within a single month, a 59 per cent increase, IFPRI reported. Nigeria's fertiliser sector remains deeply integrated into global commodity markets, which places it squarely in the path of the shock.
Fuel Feeds Through
Petrol has climbed from below ₦900 per litre before the escalation to as high as ₦1,600 in some states, with diesel following a similar path, the IFPRI note showed. Although domestic refineries led by the Dangote Refinery were estimated to supply around 92 per cent of daily petrol demand by February 2026, up from heavy import reliance in 2025, higher global crude prices raise feedstock costs, so pump prices rise regardless of where the fuel is processed. For agriculture, that spike hits transport, irrigation, mechanisation and post-harvest processing.
Bad Timing for Farmers
The timing is especially difficult because the planting season for maize, rice and cassava runs from March through June, the same window when more than half of Nigeria's fertiliser imports typically arrive, IFPRI noted. As input costs rise, smallholders under tight liquidity tend to cut application rates, reduce planted area, or switch to less input-intensive crops, responses that collectively lower yields and push food prices up. Food inflation had eased to around 21 to 23 per cent by mid-2025 on a steadier naira and better harvests, a recovery the latest fuel pressures now threaten.
FoodPrices Nigeria tracks verified retail prices across Lagos markets, where the cost-push pressure from fuel and fertiliser eventually reaches the household basket.
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