India is widely expected to triple its import duty on lentils from 10 percent to 30 percent when the current tariff expires on March 31, 2026 — a move that would significantly reshape global pulse trade flows and raise import costs for food-dependent nations. Gaurav Jain, analyst with AgPulse Analytica, told The Western Producer (February 18, 2026) that the duty hike is inevitable, driven by the government's commitment to purchase all domestic lentils at the minimum support price of approximately $771 per tonne.
The anticipated tariff hike reflects India's broader strategy to protect domestic pulse farmers from lower-priced imports. According to Alberta Farmer Express (February 19, 2026), imported lentils currently sell for about $600 per tonne after the existing 10 percent duty — well below the government's MSP. A 30 percent duty would raise the landed cost of imports to approximately $710 per tonne, narrowing the gap and encouraging more Indian farmers to sell to private traders rather than relying on government procurement.
The Indian government has already signalled its protectionist intent across the pulse sector. The Logical Indian (January 19, 2026) reported that India quietly imposed a 30 percent retaliatory tariff on U.S. pulses — including peas and lentils — in response to higher American duties on Indian goods. Two Republican senators from major pulse-producing states urged President Trump to intervene, describing the tariff as unfair and harmful to U.S. farmers.
The trade dynamics are already shifting in anticipation of the duty increase. Grainews (February 19, 2026) reported that vessel lineups destined for India have been strong since December, as exporters in Canada and Australia rush to take advantage of the current 10 percent duty before it expires. Jain anticipates shipments will slow substantially in March as the window closes.
India's lentil imports are forecast to decline from 1.25 million tonnes this crop year to approximately one million tonnes in 2026-27. According to The Western Producer's analysis, the combination of India's bumper domestic harvest, anticipated higher duties, and strong carryover stocks will compress import demand. Canada, which depends on India as its largest lentil export market, could find it difficult to market an average crop if the duties are confirmed.
Competition from alternative suppliers adds further pressure. Kazakhstan is expected to expand lentil production in 2026-27, while Turkey's output should rebound from recent shortfalls, both of which could erode Canada's market share even before accounting for the tariff increase.
The broader global pulse trade landscape is being reshaped by overlapping tariff actions. According to Pulse Pod/Global Pulses, U.S. tariffs on imports from across the world, China's imposition of duties on U.S. and Canadian agricultural products, and India's introduction of import tariffs on lentils and desi chickpeas are collectively expected to alter global trade dynamics and prices. India has also imposed a 10 percent import duty on chickpeas effective April 1, 2025, as domestic production exceeds expectations.
The ramifications extend beyond trade volumes. India is the world's largest consumer of pulses, accounting for approximately 27 percent of global consumption. As The Logical Indian noted, pulses are not just a trade commodity for India but a politically and socially sensitive staple, making any tariff decision a delicate balancing act between protecting farmers and ensuring affordable food for over 1.4 billion consumers.
Exports to Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the United Arab Emirates are also expected to decline in late February and March, as Ramadan demand from those markets has already been met. Alberta Farmer Express reported that the combination of India's anticipated duty hike and seasonal demand shifts could create a temporary oversupply of lentils on global markets, potentially softening prices for importing nations in the near term.
For Nigeria and other West African food markets, India's pulse trade policies matter because they influence global availability and pricing of lentils, cowpeas, and other legumes that form part of the regional diet. A tightening of India's import market could redirect surplus lentil supply from Canada, Australia, and Turkey toward alternative markets — potentially benefiting African importers — or could signal a broader trend of protectionism that raises food costs globally as more countries prioritise domestic production over open trade.