A 25kg bag of Imported Rice (Long Grain) posted one of the steepest mean price declines in this week's Ministry of Agriculture and Food Systems market survey, falling 3.8% from ₦29,688 to ₦28,562 in Lagos.
This Week's Mean Price
The mean was calculated across eight Lagos markets. The cheapest bag was recorded at ₦26,500 in Agbalata Market, while the priciest reached ₦30,000 in Mushin Market.
What's Driving The Move
Imported rice is priced off two macro variables above all others, the tariff and the exchange rate, and both moved in buyers' favour this month.
The tariff moved first. Nigeria reduced its import duty on bulk rice above 5kg from 70% to 47.5%, and on broken rice from 70% to 30%, effective 1 July 2026, three weeks before this survey period. Milling Middle East and Africa reported the change in April and May 2026, citing fiscal policy documents seen by Platts, and traders quoted there expected importers to begin shipping directly into Nigeria rather than routing through Cotonou.
The exchange rate held. The naira traded at roughly ₦1,380 to the dollar in the official market at the start of July according to Channels Television, and around ₦1,382 on 13 July according to Vanguard, with market data showing it firming to about ₦1,369 by 24 July. When the CBN held the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5% on 21 July, Governor Olayemi Cardoso credited exchange rate stability with moderating core inflation. For an importer, a duty cut of more than 22 percentage points against a currency that is not moving translates almost directly into a lower shelf price.
Those two changes landed on a market already carrying surplus stock. Platts assessments reported by Milling Middle East and Africa in November 2025 found Nigerian rice prices down 32% on oversupply, with a Lagos-based trader describing a structural surplus that would take time to correct as India and Thailand flooded the West African corridor following record harvests.
The retail effect has been visible in Lagos markets since late last year. Punch and BusinessDay both reported in October 2025 that rice prices had crashed in several Lagos markets, including Oyingbo, Arena in Oshodi, Festac Town and Mile 12, with a 50kg bag of local rice that had sold for around ₦85,000 in January 2025 falling to between ₦60,000 and ₦70,000, and both noted trader concern over squeezed margins. Those reports predate this survey by several months, so they establish the trend rather than explain this particular week. What is current is the tariff and the currency, and this week's mean moves as both would predict.