The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2026 growth forecast for Nigeria to 4.2% while warning that higher prices for essentials will worsen poverty and food insecurity, Premium Times reported on October 13, 2026. The fund projects growth of 4.3% for 2027.
A Brighter Forecast, a Harder Warning
The projections appear in the IMF's 2026 World Economic Outlook, titled "Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices," which was presented at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, according to Premium Times. The fund credited the upgrade to macroeconomic stability and favourable terms of trade, and held its 2026 forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa at 4.5%.
The outlook said "higher prices for essentials are expected to further aggravate poverty and food insecurity," Premium Times reported. It added that "Oil-importing, non-resource-intensive economies are more adversely affected by higher energy and food prices."
Call for Cash Transfers
At a news conference in Bangkok on Tuesday, IMF officials urged Nigeria to strengthen targeted cash transfers to vulnerable households as food and energy prices rise, P.M. News reported. Deniz Igan, Division Chief in the IMF Research Department, said such support would help reduce poverty and improve food security, and that Nigeria must balance households' immediate needs with long-term fiscal stability.
Igan said "temporary income support should be accompanied by improved public expenditure and stronger revenue collection," according to P.M. News. She said Nigeria's growth had stayed resilient partly because it is an energy exporter, despite persistent poverty and declining household purchasing power. Silvana Tenreyro, Director of the IMF Research Department, said global economic resilience is approaching its limits and urged governments to rebuild fiscal buffers and strengthen supply chains, particularly in energy.
Food Inflation Still Near 20%
The warning lands as food prices continue to rise, though more slowly than a year ago. The National Bureau of Statistics put food inflation at 19.57% year on year in August 2026, down from 25.30% in August 2025, Voice of Nigeria reported. Month on month, food inflation slowed to 1.02% in August from 5.56% in July, while headline inflation eased to 15.39%.
Reforms and Household Strain
The federal government describes its reforms, including changes to the foreign exchange market and the removal of fuel subsidies, as fixing the structure of the economy, Premium Times noted. Many Nigerians say the same reforms have raised energy prices and the cost of living.
FoodPrices Nigeria tracks the retail prices of rice, beans, garri, oils and other staples across Lagos markets, where the pressures the IMF describes show up in what households pay each week.
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