Turkey, which grows most of the world's hazelnuts, is heading for a far bigger crop this season, easing a market that spent the past year in crisis. The International Nut and Dried Fruit Council estimated Turkey's 2026/27 hazelnut production at 809,940 tonnes in May, up 56 per cent from 518,000 tonnes in 2025/26, according to FreshPlaza. With beginning stocks of about 150,000 tonnes, total available supply for the new season is projected at 959,940 tonnes.
How Bad Last Year Was
The rebound follows a punishing season. Spring frosts across Turkey's Black Sea belt, followed by summer drought, cut output to below 500,000 tonnes, some 100,000 to 200,000 tonnes short of a normal year, and pushed the average price of 11/13mm kernels to around $18 per kilogram in October, more than double the previous year, as FreshPlaza reported, noting that Turkey normally supplies close to two thirds of world demand. The squeeze rippled through the whole chain, with the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council recording variable quality and a larger share of small kernels in the 2025/26 crop, and many discretionary buyers avoiding hazelnut altogether because of the higher prices.
Buyers Return as Supply Loosens
The market has already begun to shift. Turkey exported 150,600 tonnes of hazelnuts between September 1, 2025 and May 31, 2026, well down from 260,143 tonnes in the same window a year earlier, while Ferrero, the largest hazelnut buyer in the world, returned to the Turkish market in May offering between 205 and 230 lira per kilogram, roughly $5.20 to $5.84, depending on nut size, FreshPlaza reported. Chile, which has grown into an alternative origin, is projected at about 120,000 tonnes for 2026/27, little changed from the previous season. Analysts have cautioned that the recovery rests on weather, with structural risks from climate, pests and cost inflation still shadowing long-term supply, as Helios Ingredients set out in its market update.
A single frost in one country can reset the price of chocolate spreads and baked goods on shelves thousands of miles away. FoodPrices Nigeria tracks verified retail prices across Lagos markets, where imported food costs carry the echo of harvests Nigerian shoppers never see.
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