The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Systems' weekly market survey for Lagos, covering the week of 24 July 2026 and compared with 17 July 2026, shows a food basket pulling apart. Imported rice eased across almost every format while garri rose across all three varieties tracked. That split is not random. It maps closely onto three macroeconomic events that landed inside the same seven days.
What Lagos Pays Now
Rice remains the largest single category tracked, and it leaned lower across almost every format this week. A derica of Imported Rice (Long Grain) had a mean price of ₦1,025 across eight markets, cheapest at ₦900 in Mushin Market and priciest at ₦1,300 in Ajah Market. The paint size of the same rice averaged ₦5,081, the 25kg bag averaged ₦28,562, and the 50kg bag averaged ₦56,938, all lower than the previous week. Imported Rice (Short Grain) also eased, with a derica averaging ₦950, a paint averaging ₦4,700, a 25kg bag averaging ₦26,722, and a 50kg bag averaging ₦53,000. Nigerian Manufactured Rice held broadly flat by comparison, with the derica and paint sizes unchanged at ₦964 and ₦4,843, the 25kg bag up marginally to ₦26,812, and the 50kg bag up slightly to ₦53,312.
Beans showed a split. A derica of Beans (Drum) rose to a mean of ₦989 across nine markets, cheapest at ₦800 in Agege Market and priciest at ₦1,200 in Ile-Epo Market, while a derica of Beans (Oloyin) fell to ₦1,056, cheapest at ₦900 in Ile-Epo Market and priciest at ₦1,300 in Ajah Market. The paint sizes of both varieties eased slightly, with Beans (Drum) averaging ₦4,256 and Beans (Oloyin) averaging ₦4,780.
Garri moved higher across all three varieties tracked. A paint of Garri (White) averaged ₦1,320 across ten markets, cheapest at ₦1,000 in Oyingbo Market and priciest at ₦2,000 in Ajah Market. Garri (Ijebu) averaged ₦1,275 across four markets, and Garri (Yellow) averaged ₦1,511 across nine markets.
Medium Sized Eggs averaged ₦5,560 per crate across ten markets, cheapest at ₦4,000 in Ile-Epo Market and priciest at ₦6,500 in Agbalata Market. Medium Sized Yam recorded the week's most dramatic move, with a mean of ₦3,055 per tuber across ten markets, cheapest at ₦2,150 in Ile-Epo Market and priciest at ₦3,500 in Mile 12 Market.
The Week's Biggest Increases
Garri (White) posted the largest mean increase of the week, rising 4.2% from ₦1,267 to ₦1,320 across ten markets. Beans (Drum) in the derica size followed with a 2.3% rise from ₦967 to ₦989 across nine markets. Garri (Ijebu) rounded out the list of moves of 1% or more, up 1.2% from ₦1,260 to ₦1,275 across four markets.
The Week's Biggest Decreases
Medium Sized Yam led all declines by a wide margin, falling 9.6% from ₦3,380 to ₦3,055 across ten markets. Imported Rice (Long Grain) recorded declines across every format tracked, down 3.8% in the 25kg bag from ₦29,688 to ₦28,562, down 3.5% in the derica from ₦1,062 to ₦1,025, and down 3.2% in the 50kg bag from ₦58,812 to ₦56,938. Medium Sized Eggs fell 3.1% from ₦5,740 to ₦5,560. Imported Rice (Short Grain) in the derica size dropped 2.8% from ₦978 to ₦950, and Beans (Oloyin) in the derica size fell 2.1% from ₦1,078 to ₦1,056. Smaller declines of 1% or more were recorded in Beans (Drum) paint, down 1.5% to ₦4,256, Imported Rice (Long Grain) paint, down 1.5% to ₦5,081, and Imported Rice (Short Grain) paint, down 1.1% to ₦4,700.
The Fuel Shock That Landed Mid-Week
The single largest cost event of the survey week was a petrol price increase. Dangote Petroleum Refinery had suspended naira sales on 14 July and switched to dollar-denominated pricing at $0.779 per litre, a move Punch and BusinessDay reported at the time. On 22 July, inside this survey window, the refinery resumed naira sales and set its gantry price at ₦1,215 per litre, up from ₦1,075, an increase of ₦140 or 13.02% as reported by Blueprint and Daily Post. Daily Post noted that depot owners and marketers had raised prices at least twice during the intervening week, with retail pumps in Abuja and its environs reaching between ₦1,270 and ₦1,350 per litre.
Fuel is the transmission belt for domestic staple prices. Garri, beans and yam reach Lagos markets by road from producing states, and haulage costs feed into wholesale prices within days rather than months. The three items that rose this week, Garri (White), Garri (Ijebu) and Beans (Drum), are all domestically produced and road-freighted. That is the most plausible immediate explanation for the increases recorded.
Why Imported Rice Moved The Other Way
Rice was insulated from the fuel move by two forces working in its favour, one monetary and one fiscal.
The naira strengthened across the survey week. Daily Post reported that the currency closed at ₦1,367.76 per dollar at the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market on 23 July, and that on a week-on-week basis it had appreciated by ₦18.19 at the official market and ₦15 in the parallel market. External reserves stood at $52.02 billion as of 23 July. A stronger naira lowers the landed cost of imported goods directly, and rice is the most import-exposed item in this survey.
Working alongside that, Nigeria's import duty on bulk rice above 5kg fell from 70% to 47.5%, and on broken rice from 70% to 30%, with effect from 1 July 2026. Milling Middle East and Africa reported the change from fiscal policy documents seen by Platts. That cut took effect three weeks before this survey week and lands on a market already carrying surplus stock, with Platts assessments having described a structural surplus in the West African rice corridor as India and Thailand increased shipments following record harvests.
The result is a basket moving in two directions at once. Items priced off the exchange rate and the tariff schedule got cheaper. Items priced off diesel and the road network got dearer.
What The Central Bank Said
The Central Bank of Nigeria's Monetary Policy Committee met on 20 and 21 July, inside this survey week, and held the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5% for a second consecutive meeting. Governor Olayemi Cardoso said the decision followed an assessment of the balance of risks, and that global uncertainty had heightened on renewed hostilities in the Middle East. The Committee noted that headline inflation eased marginally to 15.91% in June 2026 from 15.93% in May, but that food inflation accelerated to 3.75% month-on-month from 2.98%, which it attributed largely to supply constraints. Gross external reserves had risen to $52.52 billion as of 17 July, enough for roughly eleven months of import cover.
That food inflation figure is the national version of what this survey records at market level. The Committee also flagged that inflation risks were skewed to the upside on rising oil and commodity prices and on climate shocks that could strain food supplies, which is worth holding in mind against the fuel move recorded in the same week.
The Two Moves That Do Not Fit
Yam and eggs both fell, and neither fits the macro picture.
Yam is domestically produced and road-freighted, so on the transport logic it should have followed garri upward. Instead it recorded the week's steepest decline at 9.6%. It also runs against months of reporting. Vanguard reported in April 2026 that a trader at Oyingbo Market expected yam prices to rise further, possibly close to double, by August, and Premium Times reported in early July 2026 that yam prices in Enugu had climbed steeply. The most likely explanation is the new yam season, since Nigeria's harvest reaches markets from around August and early supply can move prices sharply, but no reporting to date confirms early harvest volumes have arrived in Lagos.
Eggs are similarly out of step. Nairametrics and Leadership both reported in March 2026 that farm gate prices had risen to around ₦5,500 per crate from ₦5,000 in January on a shortage of day-old chicks, and The Guardian reported continued cost pressure in May 2026. Poultry feed and distribution are both fuel-sensitive, so a fuel increase should have pushed eggs up rather than down. No specific driver for the 3.1% decline has been identified.
Both are worth watching across the next two surveys before any conclusion is drawn.
For live, continuously updated prices across all markets in this survey, visit https://foodprices.ng/real-time-prices.
Sources
Dangote Refinery increases fuel price, resumes naira sales, Daily Post, 23 July 2026: https://dailypost.ng/2026/07/23/dangote-refinery-increases-fuel-price-resumes-naira-sales/ Dangote Refinery raises petrol price, Blueprint, 23 July 2026: https://blueprint.ng/dangote-refinery-raises-petrol-price-2/ Dangote fixes petrol price at $0.779 per litre in new pricing template, Punch, 13 July 2026: https://punchng.com/dangote-fixes-petrol-price-at-0-779-per-litre-in-new-pricing-template/ Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today, July 24, 2026, Daily Post: https://dailypost.ng/2026/07/24/dollar-to-naira-exchange-rate-today-july-24-2026-naira-records-appreciation-across-official-black-markets/ Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today, July 23, 2026, Daily Post: https://dailypost.ng/2026/07/23/dollar-to-naira-exchange-rate-today-july-23-2026-nigerian-naira-extends-appreciation-against-us-dollar/ CBN retains MPR at 26.5%, Vanguard, 21 July 2026: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2026/07/breaking-cbn-retains-mpr-at-26-5/ CBN keeps MPR at 26.5% for second straight meeting, BusinessDay, 21 July 2026: https://businessday.ng/business-economy/article/cbn-keeps-mpr-at-26-5-for-second-straight-meeting-citing-caution/ Monetary Policy Decisions, Central Bank of Nigeria: https://www.cbn.gov.ng/MonetaryPolicy/decisions.html Nigeria cuts rice tariffs to 47.5% as trade routes face pressure, Milling Middle East and Africa, April 2026: https://millingmea.com/nigeria-cuts-rice-tariffs-to-47-5-as-trade-routes-face-pressure-platts/ West Africa tightens rice import rules as local supply push grows, Milling Middle East and Africa, May 2026: https://millingmea.com/west-africa-tightens-rice-import-rules-as-local-supply-push-grows/ Nigeria's inflation rate slows to 15.91%, Vanguard, 15 July 2026: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2026/07/breaking-nigerias-inflation-rate-slows-to-15-91/ Yam prices rise across Lagos markets, Vanguard, 26 April 2026: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2026/04/yam-prices-rise-across-lagos-markets-as-traders-consumers-lament/ Price of yams soars in Enugu markets, Premium Times, July 2026: https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/more-news/893300-price-of-yams-soars-in-enugu-markets.html Egg prices rise to N8,500 as chick shortage tightens supply nationwide, Nairametrics, 29 March 2026: https://nairametrics.com/2026/03/29/egg-prices-rise-to-n8500-as-chick-shortage-tightens-supply-nationwide/