Global fertiliser prices climbed 2.4 percent in the first weeks of 2026, marking a sharp reversal from the stabilisation observed in late 2025 and raising fresh concerns about food production costs worldwide. The surge, tracked by the World Bank and major industry analysts, has sent shockwaves through commodity markets as farmers prepare for the spring planting season, FinancialContent/MarketMinute reported (February 20, 2026).
At the heart of the price spike is the cost of natural gas, which accounts for 70 to 80 percent of the variable cost of producing ammonia — the building block for all nitrogen-based fertilisers. In January 2026, U.S. natural gas prices at the Henry Hub averaged $4 per million Btu, a 16 percent year-over-year increase driven by extreme winter weather and infrastructure bottlenecks, according to FinancialContent's analysis. In the United States, urea values jumped from $350 to $430 per ton in the first three weeks of January alone.
A major regulatory shift has compounded the supply pressure. On January 1, 2026, the European Union officially implemented the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for fertiliser imports — the first time carbon intensity has been directly factored into the global price of fertiliser. The mechanism effectively forces a green transition in an industry that is one of the world's largest emitters of CO₂, FinancialContent reported. The regulation has forced European producers to keep local nitrogen production at just 75 percent of capacity, as high input costs made domestic manufacturing economically unviable.
China's decision to extend export restrictions on phosphates and urea through at least August 2026 has further tightened global supply. As FinancialContent reported, the restrictions are aimed at safeguarding China's own domestic food security, but have removed a significant source of supply from the international market at precisely the moment when demand is increasing ahead of the Northern Hemisphere planting season.
The broader implications are severe. A new report by the Joint Research Centre warns that the interplay between climate volatility and socioeconomic policy is creating a deeply divergent future for food security, as ESG News reported (February 17, 2026). The 2.4 percent rise in fertiliser costs is considered a leading indicator for global food price inflation, which already ticked up 1.3 percent in January 2026.
Economists are drawing parallels to the 2022 fertiliser crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war. Because fertiliser application decisions are made months before harvest, the inflationary tail of the early 2026 spike could persist well into 2027. For developing nations where food accounts for up to 50 percent of household spending, even modest increases in fertiliser costs can translate into catastrophic food price inflation.
The climate crisis is compounding these pressures. Food Navigator (January 30, 2026) reported that climate change is disrupting global food production, logistics, and commodity markets — driving crop failures, river transport bottlenecks, and extreme price volatility. Real-time monitoring and early data insights are becoming essential tools for managing supply chain risk.
The World Food Programme's 2026 Global Outlook paints an alarming picture of the wider food security landscape. According to the WFP, 318 million people face crisis levels of hunger or worse in 2026 — more than double the figure recorded in 2019. Two simultaneous famines have been confirmed in parts of Gaza and Sudan, a devastating first this century. Nearly 70 percent of acutely food-insecure people live in fragile or conflict-affected countries.
The United Nations has called for urgent investment in agrifood systems. A special meeting of the Economic and Social Council in New York noted that ending hunger by 2030 would cost $93 billion per year — well under one percent of the $21.9 trillion spent on military budgets over the past decade, UN News reported (February 16, 2026). The meeting emphasised that food and farming systems underpin livelihoods worldwide, providing employment for 39 percent of the global workforce and 64 percent of jobs in Africa.
For Nigeria and other food-importing nations in Africa, the fertiliser price surge is particularly concerning. Higher input costs will increase the price of domestic food production at a time when the country is investing heavily in agricultural transformation through programmes like the AfDB-backed NAGS-AP Phase 2. If fertiliser costs remain elevated through the 2026 planting season, the resulting production cost increases could undermine progress on food price stabilisation and deepen inflationary pressures in markets already under strain.