The Food and Agriculture Organisation and its partners have projected that about 35 million Nigerians could face acute hunger during the June to August 2026 lean season unless urgent interventions are put in place, according to reporting by Leadership. The warning lands at the most fragile point in the agricultural calendar, when stocks from the previous harvest run low and the new crop has not yet matured.
The figure tracks closely with the latest Cadre Harmonisé analysis, the food security assessment that informs national planning. That analysis projected that 34.7 million people across 27 states and the Federal Capital Territory would be food insecure or worse between June and August 2026, as The Guardian reported. The same report identified insurgency, kidnapping, banditry, displacement, and climate shocks such as floods and long dry spells as the main drivers pushing households toward hunger.
Farmers Point to the Cost of Planting
The All Farmers Association of Nigeria has warned that economic and security pressures could undermine the push to raise productivity this season. The association's Vice President, Daniel Okafor, told Leadership that the soaring cost of farm inputs, particularly fertilisers, improved seeds and agrochemicals, is the major obstacle confronting growers this year, with sharply higher labour costs compounding the problem for the smallholders who produce more than 70 per cent of Nigeria's food.
Government Calls the Data a Wake-Up Call
Responding to the Cadre Harmonisé findings, the Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Dr Marcus Ogunbiyi, said the data shows where hunger is deepening, where nutrition outcomes are deteriorating, and where interventions are most urgently needed, according to The Guardian. He said the findings would guide programmes including the National Agricultural Growth Scheme and Agro-Pocket and the National Food Security and Nutrition Emergency Plan. The FAO Country Representative, Hussein Gadain, said armed conflict, organised crime, economic pressure and climate extremes have continued to undermine livelihoods and food systems across the country.
FoodPrices Nigeria monitors verified retail prices across Lagos markets, the street-level signal of whether national interventions are reaching the plate. The coming lean season will be measured one market basket at a time.