Coconut oil, once a niche edible oil, has become one of the tightest corners of the global vegetable oil market, and the relief arriving in 2026 looks modest against how far prices have climbed. International benchmarks nearly tripled in less than two years, reaching about $2,990 per metric tonne, with India, the largest consumer, seeing rates spike to roughly $4,840 per tonne, making coconut oil dearer than many competing edible oils, according to Milling Middle East & Africa.
A Recovery That Restores, Not Loosens
Global production is projected at about 3.5 million metric tonnes in 2026, up from an estimated 3.16 million in 2025, with the Philippines rebounding to nearly 1.60 million tonnes and anchoring roughly 45 per cent of world supply, according to the International Coconut Community. Exports are forecast to recover to around 2.44 million tonnes, still well below the 2.89 million recorded in 2024. The same outlook cautions that the rebound represents stabilisation rather than a structural loosening, with ageing plantations, slow replanting and rising competition for nuts from higher-value products such as virgin coconut oil, desiccated coconut and coconut milk continuing to restrict copra available for crushing.
Why the Premium Sticks
Prices are projected to average between $2,000 and $2,300 per tonne on the year, well above pre-pandemic norms and at a persistent premium to major vegetable oils, the International Coconut Community noted, partly because coconut oil is hard to substitute in oleochemicals and personal care, leaving much of its demand insensitive to price. Traders have watched the gap between coconut oil and palm kernel oil widen, a signal of coconut oil's structural scarcity within the lauric complex, according to TM Duché & Sons. Philippine prices stood at about $2,773 per tonne in June as steady milling and adequate inventories pushed the market lower, according to IMARC Group.
Because coconut oil competes for the same shelf and the same fryer as palm and vegetable oils, tightness in one lauric oil tends to travel across the whole cooking oil aisle. FoodPrices Nigeria tracks verified prices for vegetable and palm oils across Lagos markets, where global oil shifts eventually reach the household.
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