Erratic rainfall, dry spells, flooding, heat, pests and diseases are cutting crop yields across Nigeria, with farmers reporting losses running into billions of naira, Vanguard reported on October 7, 2026. Climate risk is also discouraging investment from farmers, agribusinesses and financial institutions, the report said.
Rice and Spice Growers Count the Cost
Sandra Victor-Gwafan, Co-Founder of DeBranch Farmers Limited in Kaduna, which works mainly with rice out-growers, said some farmers who invested ₦250,000 to ₦400,000 per hectare lost 30% to 50% of their expected harvest to flooding and dry spells, according to Vanguard. Her firm now uses drainage planning, coordinated mechanisation and staggered planting.
Jerry Olanrenwaju, Lead of JetFarmsNG, said some farmers in his network growing ginger, turmeric and garlic lost 30% to 40% of expected yield in some seasons, Vanguard reported. He said a farmer spending ₦500,000 to ₦800,000 per hectare can lose hundreds of thousands of naira to weather alone, and that government support has not reached farmers at the scale needed.
Planting Calendars No Longer Hold
Dr Nkechi Okafor of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN) said farmers can no longer rely on fixed planting calendars. "Climate change is real. It has come to stay," she told Vanguard. She said rice and root and tuber crops are especially exposed, that rural farmers often miss weather information from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), and urged the government to cut input costs and invest in irrigation.
Oluokun Remi, a vegetable farmer in Osun State who grows tomatoes, pepper and okra among other crops, said he now plans irrigation before planting. "If the rain comes, fine, and if it doesn't come, there is a plan," he said, Vanguard reported.
What NiMet Forecast
NiMet's 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction projected below-normal rainfall in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun, and dry spells in parts of 14 states, including Bauchi, Borno, Kano, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara, according to Vanguard.
Calls for Resilience Funding
Dr Andrew Mamedu, Country Director of ActionAid Nigeria, described the government response as fragmented and insufficient. "Nigeria cannot achieve food security without building climate resilience," he said, Vanguard reported. He called for affordable credit, insurance and targeted subsidies, especially for women and young farmers. Environmental expert Prof Babatunde Bolaji Bernard recommended early-maturing and drought-resistant varieties, irrigation and crop diversification, while Ayoola Fatona, Global Head of Agricultural Risk at Leadway Assurance, urged farmers to budget for insurance against flood and drought alongside seeds and fertiliser.
FoodPrices Nigeria tracks rice, tomatoes, pepper, okro and other staples across Lagos markets. Yield losses on farms in producing states are one of the forces behind the prices shoppers meet in those markets.
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