The global fertiliser market, which spiked earlier this year, is turning as one of the world's biggest suppliers steps back in. China has quietly reopened its urea export window after an almost total eight-month suspension, issuing fresh quotas to producers for the June to August 2026 period, according to Price-Watch.
A Sharp Reversal
The effect on prices was immediate. India's latest urea import tender, floated on June 8, 2026, drew bids of about $445 per tonne, a fall of nearly 50 per cent from April 2026 prices of around $890 per tonne, when buyers were scrambling for supply during the West Asia crisis, Price-Watch reported. Only weeks earlier the World Bank had warned that global fertiliser prices could climb more than 30 per cent in 2026, after urea jumped 53.7 per cent month-on-month in March to $725.6 per tonne, its highest level in four years, as Ecofin Agency reported.
Why It Matters for Nigeria
Fertiliser is one of the heaviest costs a Nigerian farmer carries, and the price of nitrogen abroad feeds directly into what farms pay at home. The market remains fragile and highly dependent on China's export policy, which can change within weeks, and on tensions in West Asia that affect gas costs and shipping, Price-Watch cautioned. For now, cheaper global urea offers a rare piece of good news for input costs heading into the season.
Input costs shape harvest size, and harvest size eventually shapes what shoppers pay. FoodPrices Nigeria tracks verified retail prices across Lagos markets, where the cost of a bag of fertiliser abroad eventually reaches the plate.