The world is on course for another large wheat harvest, but the usual reward for buyers, cheaper grain, is proving elusive. The United States Department of Agriculture projects Russia will produce about 88 million tonnes of wheat in the 2026/27 season and Ukraine another 23.5 million tonnes, with analysts suggesting Russia's crop could climb toward 90 million tonnes, close to its record, according to The Western Producer.
A Split Harvest Around the World
That Black Sea strength is offsetting weakness elsewhere. The US winter wheat crop is forecast at 1.03 billion bushels, down from 1.40 billion a year earlier and the smallest since 1965, while Australia and Argentina are both expected to harvest sharply smaller crops, the same report noted, leaving world ending stocks around 275 million tonnes. On paper, that points to comfortable supply.
Why Prices Are Not Falling
Normally a bumper crop drags prices down at harvest, but that seasonal slide has not materialised. Wheat prices across Ukraine, Russia, Romania and Bulgaria have stayed well above year-ago levels, held up by higher production and logistics costs, port disruption, a stronger rouble and sellers unwilling to discount after last season's losses, according to Fastmarkets. Prices firmed further in early July as tighter US stocks and fresh export demand lifted futures above $6 a bushel, with the United States booking a private sale of 100,000 tonnes of hard red spring wheat to Nigeria for the 2026/27 marketing year, according to Trading Economics.
Nigeria mills imported wheat into the flour that becomes bread, noodles and semovita on millions of tables, so the price set in Black Sea ports eventually reaches the Lagos shelf. FoodPrices Nigeria tracks verified retail prices for flour and staples across Lagos markets, where the gap between a big global harvest and a firm global price is felt at the checkout.