An agriculture expert has issued a stark warning: the Federal Government's recent food import policies, while providing welcome short-term consumer relief, could seriously damage local farming and Nigeria's long-term food security if not balanced with meaningful support for domestic producers.
Dr Fatai Afolabi made the remarks at a forum organised by the Plantation Owners' Forum of Nigeria (POFON), in collaboration with the Oil Palm and Other Oil Seeds Value Chain, in Lagos. According to the News Agency of Nigeria, the event focused on the theme "Current Government Food Strategy, the Concomitant Effects and Implications for Food Security in Nigeria."
Afolabi cautioned that Nigeria's food system is navigating an exceptionally difficult period marked by inflationary pressures, climate variability, and insecurity in major food-producing regions. While imports help bring prices down for consumers, they simultaneously threaten farm incomes, rural employment, and agro-industrial growth. He warned that sustained losses could force farmers out of production entirely, increasing Nigeria's dependence on food imports and exposing the country to global supply shocks, foreign exchange pressures, and long-term vulnerabilities.
The warning carries particular weight given what farmers on the ground are reporting. In a detailed investigation by Nairametrics published in late 2025, farmers across the North-Central and North-West regions described conditions that could lead to a severe food crisis. Ibrahim Abdullahi, a rice farmer from Niger State, described how the cost of fertiliser, pesticides, and fuel has tripled in the last two years, saying farmers can barely break even and many are running into debt. He warned that if conditions continue, many farmers will simply walk away from the farms.
Another farmer, Simeon Dabeng, described the situation as dire to Nairametrics, noting that many producers are already operating at a loss due to insecurity and inadequate government support. He pointed out that farmers are being asked to lower prices without receiving subsidies or being consulted in negotiations.
The FAO has echoed these concerns at the international level. According to the same Nairametrics report, the FAO warned that about 34.7 million Nigerians could face severe food insecurity during the June to August 2026 lean season if timely interventions are not implemented, based on the October 2025 Cadre Harmonisé analysis. The report attributes the worsening situation to persistent conflicts, economic shocks, and the growing impact of organised crime in food-producing regions.
Drawing from international models, Afolabi cited India and the Netherlands as countries offering useful lessons, according to NAN. India deploys food imports strategically during shortages while complementing them with strong domestic support systems — including direct farmer payments and procurement guarantees. The Netherlands, despite being one of the world's leading agricultural exporters, supports farmers through input subsidies, tax incentives, affordable energy, strong cooperatives, and close integration with research and extension services. "Affordable food and profitable farming are not mutually exclusive goals. With thoughtful coordination and sustained support for farmers, Nigeria can achieve both," he said.
The Minister of State for Agriculture, Senator Aliyu Abdullahi, acknowledged some of these tensions at the 2026 budget defence session in Abuja. According to Peoples Gazette, he noted that the most pressing concern confronting farmers remains the rising cost of inputs, particularly fertiliser, driven by gas pricing policies that affect manufacturers' ability to produce affordable products for Nigerian farmers. He also acknowledged that taxation policies on agrochemicals and pesticides increase production costs, forcing farmers to balance rising costs with consumer expectations for lower food prices.
Senator Saliu Mustapha, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Agriculture, flagged another concern reported by Peoples Gazette: while total national expenditure is projected to rise to ₦58.47 trillion in 2026, the allocation to the agriculture ministry actually declined.
Independent Newspaper spoke to multiple stakeholders who agreed that Nigeria's food future will be shaped not by ambition alone, but by the speed, consistency, and seriousness of government action. Stakeholders emphasised stabilising input costs, restoring farmer confidence, securing production zones, and ensuring that agricultural budgets move from paper to the field.
This tension between consumer prices and farmer viability is one of the most important dynamics in Nigeria's food system today. At FoodPrices, we track both sides of this equation — and the data consistently shows that policies which ignore farmer economics eventually lead to supply shortfalls and even higher prices down the road. The challenge for policymakers is finding the balance that feeds the nation while keeping farming viable. We will continue reporting on this critical intersection.