Nigeria is now importing more agricultural goods than it exports. Foreign trade data from the National Bureau of Statistics, analysed by Nairametrics on 26 September 2026, shows the agricultural trade balance swung from a surplus of ₦740.27 billion in the first half of 2025 to a deficit of ₦56.13 billion in the first half of 2026.
Exports Fell Three Times Faster Than Imports
Agricultural exports dropped from ₦2.96 trillion in the first half of 2025 to ₦1.98 trillion in the same period of 2026, a fall of 33.3%. Imports also fell, from ₦2.22 trillion to ₦2.03 trillion, but by only 8.5%. That gap is what turned a comfortable surplus into a deficit.
The Second Quarter Did the Damage
The first quarter still looked healthy. Agricultural exports reached ₦1.17 trillion against imports of ₦827.72 billion, leaving a surplus of ₦344.65 billion. The second quarter reversed it. Exports slumped to ₦802.99 billion from ₦1.26 trillion a year earlier, while imports edged up to ₦1.20 trillion from ₦1.18 trillion. The result was a quarterly deficit of ₦400.78 billion, large enough to wipe out the first quarter's surplus and push the half year into the red.
Cocoa Still Leads the Export Basket
Cocoa remains Nigeria's most valuable farm export. In the second quarter, standard quality cocoa beans earned ₦154.31 billion and superior quality cocoa beans ₦58.82 billion, a combined ₦213.13 billion. Sesame seeds followed at ₦96.03 billion, with soya beans at ₦50.22 billion and soya bean flours and meals at ₦36.41 billion, according to the same NBS data.
Why It Matters for Food Prices
A deficit means more naira leaving the country to pay for food and agricultural inputs than coming in from farm exports. That puts pressure on foreign exchange, and a weaker naira raises the landed cost of imported staples such as wheat and some rice. It also signals that Nigeria's agricultural sector, which employed 25.34 million people or 30.1% of the workforce in 2023 according to the NBS figures cited by Nairametrics, is earning less abroad at the moment it is spending more.
FoodPrices Nigeria will watch whether the swing to an agricultural trade deficit feeds through to the prices of imported staples in Lagos markets over the coming months.
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