The global shrimp business is being redrawn by trade policy, even as ponds around the world produce record volumes. United States tariffs of up to 50 percent are hitting Asian exporters including India, Vietnam and Indonesia, while Ecuador faces far lower duties, according to a Rabobank analysis reported by The Fish Site, which warned the industry faces a prolonged period of instability.
India Loses, Ecuador Gains
The stakes are highest for India, which sends about 40 per cent of its shrimp exports to the US, and where farm-gate prices fell sharply after the tariffs took effect, according to S&P Global. Ecuador, meanwhile, has kept expanding, shipping 1.15 million tonnes in the first ten months of 2025, up 15.5 per cent year on year, with China taking nearly half. Ecuadorian processors are now courting outside investors to move into higher-value products and defend their position, as Undercurrent News reported.
A Market Searching for Balance
As Asian suppliers redirect volumes away from the US toward China and Europe, analysts expect oversupply and downward pressure on prices in those markets, according to The Fish Site. The US itself imports about 94 per cent of the seafood it eats, so the tariffs also raise costs for American buyers, as the Southern Shrimp Alliance noted.
Nigeria imports a large share of the fish and shellfish it consumes, so global gluts and tariff-driven reroutes shape what local importers pay. FoodPrices Nigeria tracks verified retail prices across Lagos markets, where shifts in world seafood trade eventually surface.
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