Nigeria's growing dependence on imported food took centre stage in Lagos this month, when Niger State Governor Mohammed Umaru Bago warned that the country's food import bill could climb to $4 billion before the end of the year. He was speaking at the opening of the fifth FirstBank Agric and Export Expo, according to The Sun, which reported that the bill had already passed $3 billion in the first nine months of 2026.
A Bill That Keeps Climbing
Bago described the trend as unsustainable for a country of roughly 300 million people that still cannot reliably feed itself, and he called it scary, according to The Sun. The concern is sharpened by how little agriculture contributes to what Nigeria sells abroad, with the sector accounting for just 4.1 per cent of exports, as Leadership reported from the same event. The two-day expo, themed "From Farm to Global Markets," drew more than 2,000 participants and 100 exhibitors, according to the News Agency of Nigeria.
The Wage That Made the Point
Bago used a striking figure to argue that farming can pay. He said graduate workers on his own farm earn a minimum of ₦500,000 a month, more than many government agencies and banks pay, joking that he could poach staff earning less than that wage, according to Legit.ng. His point, the report noted, was that well-run agricultural enterprises can compete with white-collar employers and should attract far more private capital than they do today.
A Call for Food Sovereignty
The governor framed the answer as food sovereignty, telling the gathering that Nigeria must build a strong local market before chasing export earnings, according to Leadership. He tied weak productivity to underinvestment in research and seed development, and pointed to concrete projects in his own state, including a $100 million Saudi-backed irrigation facility and plans for export-oriented greenhouses, as Nairametrics reported. He held up Brazil's Mato Grosso and Goias regions as the scale of production Nigeria should aim for, and complained that banks remained unwilling to finance primary production, according to Megastar.
Food First for Security
Bago also linked food production to the country's security troubles, arguing that a well-fed population is a more stable one. One of the antidotes to insecurity is food first, he said, according to Megastar. His remarks sat alongside a wider push at the expo, where FirstBank Group chief executive Olusegun Alebiosu said the platform had shifted from conversations to execution by facilitating financing, market access and partnerships, and where Lagos, represented by its agriculture commissioner Abisola Olusanya, spoke of investing in cold-chain logistics and infrastructure, according to the News Agency of Nigeria and Nairametrics.
A food import bill measured in billions of dollars ends, eventually, as the price of a plate of food in a Lagos home. FoodPrices Nigeria tracks verified retail prices across Lagos markets, the ground-level test of whether calls for food sovereignty ever reach the shopper.