While Nigeria’s headline food inflation numbers suggest a country moving in the right direction, a parallel reality is unfolding in the northeast that tells a dramatically different story.
The United Nations World Food Programme issued a stark warning on January 16, 2026: 55 million people across West and Central Africa are expected to face crisis levels of hunger or worse during the June-to-August 2026 lean season. Over 13 million children in the region are expected to suffer from malnutrition.
The latest analysis from the Cadre Harmonisé — the regional food security classification framework — projects that over three million people will face emergency levels of food insecurity this year, more than double the 1.5 million recorded in 2020, the WFP statement confirmed.
For the first time in nearly a decade, parts of Borno State are at risk of catastrophic hunger — the most severe classification on the IPC scale. According to Anadolu Agency (January 2026), Jean Martin Bauer, WFP’s director of food security and nutrition analysis, told reporters in Geneva that an estimated 15,000 people in specific areas of Borno face this extreme classification. “This is a group that’s one step away from famine,” he said.
The funding picture is dire. According to the WFP statement, the agency will only be able to reach 72,000 people in Nigeria in February 2026 — a dramatic reduction from the 1.3 million it assisted during the 2025 lean season. UN News (January 16, 2026) reported that more than half a million vulnerable people in Cameroon are also at risk of being cut off from assistance in the coming weeks.
Four countries — Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, and Niger — account for 77 percent of the region’s food insecurity figures. The consequences of underfunding are already visible. The WFP statement noted that last year’s funding shortfalls forced the agency to scale down its nutrition programmes, affecting more than 300,000 children in Nigeria. Malnutrition levels in several northern states have since deteriorated from “serious” to “critical.”
As reported by News Central TV (January 17, 2026), the WFP also presented evidence that funding directly determines outcomes. In Mali, areas where families received reduced food rations experienced a 64 percent surge in acute hunger since 2023. Communities that received full rations experienced a 34 percent decrease.
“To break the cycle of hunger for future generations, we need a paradigm shift in 2026. National governments and their partners must increase investment in preparedness, anticipatory action, and resilience-building to empower communities,” said Sarah Longford, WFP’s Deputy Regional Director for West and Central Africa, as quoted in the WFP release.
The WFP said it urgently requires more than $453 million over the next six months to continue providing life-saving humanitarian assistance across the region. The disconnect between Nigeria’s improving inflation metrics and the deepening humanitarian crisis in the northeast underscores a critical point: national averages can mask extreme regional disparities.