The Cadre Harmonisé food security analysis has projected that 34.7 million people across 27 states and the Federal Capital Territory will be food insecure or worse between June and August 2026. The figure covers the lean season, the stretch between planting and harvest when household food stocks run lowest and prices climb highest.
What Is Driving the Numbers
The report identifies several overlapping pressures. Insurgency, kidnapping, and banditry have displaced farming populations across the north, while government food imports have weakened rural economies and the livelihoods that depend on them. Climate shocks, including floods and prolonged dry spells, are reshaping cropping systems and reducing the land available for cultivation. The Permanent Secretary, Dr Marcus Ogunbiyi, described the findings as a call for coordinated action, noting that the data points to where hunger is deepening and where interventions are most urgent.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation reached a similar conclusion. Its Country Representative, Hussein Gadain, said armed conflicts, organised crime, economic pressures, and climate extremes have continued to undermine livelihoods and food systems nationwide. The FAO and its partners projected that roughly 35 million Nigerians could face acute hunger through the June to August lean season without urgent intervention.
The Cost of Farming Itself
Production costs are compounding the supply problem. The Vice President of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, Daniel Okafor, identified the soaring cost of fertilisers, improved seeds, and agrochemicals as the major obstacle this planting season. He added that labour costs have also risen sharply, raising expenses for smallholder farmers who account for more than 70 percent of Nigeria's food output. When the people who grow most of the country's food cannot afford to plant at scale, the squeeze arrives at the market months later.
The Government Response
The findings are expected to guide flagship interventions, including the National Agricultural Growth Scheme and Agro-Pocket and the National Food Security and Nutrition Emergency Plan, both aimed at supporting vulnerable households and farmers through the worst of the season.
FoodPrices Nigeria monitors verified prices across Lagos markets, capturing in real time how national supply pressures like these translate into what households actually pay at the stall.