Every farming season in Nigeria begins with the same anxious question: when will the rains come?
For the roughly 90 per cent of African farmers who depend entirely on rainfall, getting the timing right on planting can mean the difference between a full harvest and a 10 to 20 per cent yield loss. And in a country where weather patterns have become increasingly unpredictable, the stakes are rising every year (TheStar, February 12, 2026; TheCable, February 12, 2026).
A new initiative launched in Abuja on February 12 aims to put actionable weather intelligence directly into farmers' hands. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), global weather technology firm Tomorrow.io, and MTN have signed a partnership to deploy a Digital Climate Advisory Service (DCAS) targeting 100,000 smallholder farmers across one state from each of Nigeria's six geopolitical zones (Premium Times, February 13, 2026; Independent, February 13, 2026).
How it works
The system goes beyond generic seasonal forecasts. At a five-day co-design workshop running February 12–16, participants from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Livestock Development, and farmer development groups worked to build a Crop Decision Tree — a framework that translates complex climate data into simple, actionable guidance tailored to local cropping patterns and climate risks (Independent, February 13, 2026; Voice of Nigeria, February 15, 2026).
Farmers will receive weekly advisories via SMS — and eventually voice messages in local languages — covering planting schedules, fertiliser application, pest management, and optimal harvesting windows. The system will generate automated guidance for specific scenarios: delayed rainfall, extended dry spells, or early-season rains (TV360, February 13, 2026; TheFact Daily, February 13, 2026).
Proven track record elsewhere
This is not an untested concept. Brian Miranda, CEO of TomorrowNow, disclosed that the platform has already reached nearly six million farmers in Kenya and close to one million in Malawi, with recent expansion into Zambia. Nigeria is the newest market, but the ambition is to scale from 100,000 to tens of millions of farmers nationwide (TheCable, February 12, 2026; TheStar, February 12, 2026).
NiMet Director-General Prof. Charles Anosike described the initiative as a shift from routine weather reporting to genuine decision-support, integrating meteorological data with agronomic expertise. He noted that NiMet's adoption of artificial intelligence in meteorology would also strengthen early warning systems for extreme weather events (Legit.ng, February 13, 2026; TheFact Daily, February 13, 2026).
The food price connection
Deputy Director Iyabo Mustapha, representing the Ministry of Agriculture's Permanent Secretary, stressed that smallholder farmers are among the hardest hit by climate change and need precise, community-level information — not national averages delivered from Abuja offices (Premium Times, February 13, 2026).
At FoodPrices Nigeria, we see the weather-to-price pipeline play out in real time. A delayed rainy season in Benue shows up as a maize price spike in Lagos markets four months later. Poor harvest timing in Kaduna translates to higher sorghum costs in Abuja. If this pilot succeeds in helping even a fraction of Nigeria's 40-million-strong farming workforce make better planting decisions, the downstream effect on supply stability — and ultimately on the prices you see on our platform — could be substantial. We'll be tracking it.